So what's changed? Well, the first big change after the last world war was the arrival of mutually assured destruction. Instead, we must look at the factors which have led to the reduction in war and try to conclude whether the decrease in war is sustainable. But we should not just assume that the past is an accurate guide to the future.
Steven Pinker's studies into the decline of violence reveal that deaths from war have fallen and fallen since World War II. This is certainly a view that current data supports. That is, the probability of a world war is the lowest it has been in decades, and perhaps the lowest it has ever been since the dawn of modernity. I believe the threat of World War III has almost faded into nothingness. Yet today - in the shadow of a flare up which some are calling a new Cold War between Russia and the U.S. had attacked, and perhaps even the Kosovo War in 1999 - when a global conflict was a real possibility. There have been points on that timeline - such as the Cuban missile crisis in 1962, and a Soviet computer malfunction in 1983 that erroneously suggested that the U.S. Next year will be the seventieth anniversary of the end of the last global conflict.
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